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Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press
Goodbye, tired Selection Sunday arguments and First Four appetizers.
Hello, real NCAA tournament games.
Now that your bracket life is at stake, it’s time to start paying attention to the action. There will be plenty of said action in the next 48 hours with 16 games on Thursday followed by 16 more on Friday.
If you’re still on the fence about any of your picks for the first round, allow us to be your guide.
Bleacher Report’s David Gardner, David Kenyon, Kerry Miller and Elliott Pohnl have put their pristine reputations on the line by offering up winner predictions for all 32 first-round games. That quartet is in unanimous agreement on 20 of the games—including a couple of significant upsets—but that still leaves 12 outcomes up for debate.
Keep this tab open, bookmarked or both and refresh often for updates and recaps. The predictions will be replaced with post-game analysis shortly after each game ends.
Predictions written by Kerry Miller.
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Jordan NworaTimothy D. Easley/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Louisville vs. No. 10 Minnesota (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS) in Des Moines, Iowa
Louisville Wins If…
It can snap out of the funk it has been in for more than a month. There’s really no question that Louisville is the better team. KenPom has the Cardinals ranked 30 spots higher than the Golden Gophers. But we’re also talking about a Louisville team that has lost seven of its last 10 games—and the three wins were against non-tournament teams.
The Cardinals get a favorable start, though, against a team that doesn’t shoot well and that usually relies on its toughness and rebounding to win games. Louisville is also pretty darn strong in the paint and won’t mind a physical game.
Minnesota Wins If…
Amir Coffey and Jordan Murphy both get cooking. Minnesota’s offense is generally bad, but Louisville’s hasn’t been much better. This seems like the type of game in which something like 63 points could be the winning score, and Coffey and Murphy could get about two-thirds of that for the Gophers.
In the two recent crucial wins over Purdue, Minnesota’s dynamic duo had 48 of its 75 points in one game and 45 of 73 in the other. They both get to the free-throw line a ton, and Murphy is a force on the glass, recording double-doubles far more often than not.
Most Important Players Are…
Jordan Nwora for Louisville and Murphy for Minnesota. Through the end of January, Nwora looked like a guaranteed first-team All-ACC representative, but he tapered off considerably in February and March, shooting worse than 39 percent from the field in his final 12 games. If he gets back on track, Minnesota won’t be able to keep pace. If he continues to struggle, Richard Pitino should advance at the expense of his dad’s former team.
Predictions
David Gardner: Louisville
David Kenyon: Louisville
Kerry Miller: Louisville
Elliott Pohnl: Minnesota
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Gerald Herbert/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 3 LSU vs. No. 14 Yale (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV) in Jacksonville, Florida
LSU Wins If…
It does its usual thing with offensive rebounds and steals. Yale is a good defensive rebounding team, but LSU has excellent offensive rebounding numbers—and against much tougher competition. Tremont Waters could also have a field day in the steals department.
Yale was a sneaky Cinderella candidate before the brackets came out, but this is such a tough draw for the Bulldogs. They aren’t going to outmuscle Naz Reid or Kavell Bigby-Williams for rebounds, and their turnover issues will be on display against a Tigers defense that almost leads the nation in steal percentage.
Yale Wins If…
The Will Wade / FBI distraction consumes LSU and Yale gets red hot from three-point range.
Hard to forecast whether the first half of that will come into play, but the second half of the upset blueprint has potential. In terms of percentage and frequency, LSU’s three-point defense is right around the national average, and Yale has a trio of solid three-point shooters on a team that makes better than 37 percent.
The Bulldogs don’t usually take a ton of three-pointers, but they’ll need to in this one.
Most Important Players Are…
Waters for LSU and Miye Oni for Yale. It’s still hard to believe that LSU was able to upset Tennessee in a game that Waters missed, because he is such a huge part of what the Tigers do on both ends of the floor. He’s the main guy Yale needs to slow down. Oni, meanwhile, is Yale’s best professional hoops prospect since Makai Mason. If any Bulldog is going to put the team on his back, it has to be him.
Predictions
David Gardner: LSU
David Kenyon: LSU
Kerry Miller: LSU
Elliott Pohnl: LSU
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Bruce PearlMark Humphrey/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT) in Salt Lake City
Auburn Wins If…
It can impose its will on an efficient underdog. The Tigers thrive on blocks and steals, but New Mexico State’s rate of both blocks and steals allowed is top 15 in the country. However, there’s a case to be made that it’s a product of playing a weak schedule, and that keeping Auburn from racking up momentum-shifting plays will be a major challenge for the Aggies. Auburn, meanwhile, is 23-2 when recording at least eight steals.
Even if Auburn is unable to force turnovers like it usually does, it could still cruise to victory by staying hot from three-point range. The Tigers have made at least a dozen triples in five consecutive games, and just about every shooter on the roster has had a turn at catching fire during that stretch.
New Mexico State Wins If…
It annihilates Auburn on the offensive glass. New Mexico State is possibly the best rebounding team in the nation, ranking top 10 in both offensive and defensive percentage. Meanwhile, Auburn’s defensive rebounding mark is among the worst in the tournament field.
The Aggies will also need to consistently turn those second-chance opportunities into points, but they could really frustrate Auburn by dragging out possessions with offensive rebounds. Rhythm is important for a team like Auburn, which shoots a lot of threes and preys on passing lanes.
Most Important Players Are…
Chuma Okeke for Auburn and AJ Harris for New Mexico State. Okeke is Auburn’s Mr. Everything, and the Tigers will need his presence in the defensive paint in this game. For the Aggies, Harris is the primary ball-handler who will be tasked with making sure Auburn doesn’t run away with this game with steals that turn into fast-break buckets.
Predictions
David Gardner: Auburn
David Kenyon: Auburn
Kerry Miller: Auburn
Elliott Pohnl: Auburn
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Mfiondu KabengelePhil Sears/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Vermont (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS) in Hartford, Connecticut
Florida State Wins If…
It puts its size to good use.
Vermont is a small team. Anthony Lamb is a stupendous minor-conference player, but at 6’6″, he is the Catamounts’ de facto starting center. Florida State, on the other hand, starts a 6’4″ point guard, a 6’5″ shooting guard, a 6’7″ wing-forward, a 6’8″ power forward and a 7’4″ center. And its primary reserve is a 6’10” forward with three-point range.
Even though Vermont’s defensive rebounding percentage ranks first among tournament teams, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Florida State doesn’t just destroy this team with blocks, rebounds and two-point buckets.
Vermont Wins If…
Lamb goes bonkers and Florida State allows the Catamounts to dictate the flow of the game. Vermont’s junior star has averaged 22.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals over his last 12 games, and that doesn’t even include his 42-point performance against St. Bonaventure in December. He can get baskets against anyone, as evidenced by 24 points at Kansas and 25 at Louisville.
As far as the flow goes, Florida State doesn’t have much of an identity outside of being big and athletic. The Seminoles can get sucked into playing the type of game the opponent wants, which in this case would be a slow-paced game with one-and-out possessions on both ends of the floor.
Then again, Virginia likes to do the same thing with much more talented players, and Florida State just beat the Cavaliers in the ACC tournament. The ‘Noles might be able to handle the ‘Mounts at any pace.
Most Important Players Are…
Mfiondu Kabengele for Florida State and Lamb for Vermont. Kabengele is the aforementioned 6’10” reserve who blocks shots, rebounds well, draws fouls and can score from anywhere. Vermont probably doesn’t have an answer for him. Though if Lamb goes out and drops 35 points, it could be Upset City.
Predictions
David Gardner: Florida State
David Kenyon: Florida State
Kerry Miller: Florida State
Elliott Pohnl: Florida State
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Cassius WinstonAl Goldis/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Bradley (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS) in Des Moines, Iowa
Michigan State Wins If…
It avoids further injury woes. The Spartans have been banged up all year, and they were dealt another blow when Kyle Ahrens suffered a nasty ankle injury in the Big Ten championship game. He might be able to return to action at some point in the tournament, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll play in the opener. Michigan State has also been without Josh Langford for most of the season, and Nick Ward is still working his way back to game shape after missing a few weeks with a broken hand.
As long as Cassius Winston stays healthy, though, they should at least win this game. Bradley doesn’t have the defense to capitalize on Michigan State’s turnover woes, nor does it have the offense to keep pace with the Spartans on the scoreboard.
Bradley Wins If…
History repeats itself. Not only did Bradley win multiple games the last time it went to the NCAA tournament (2006), but Michigan State also lost to a No. 15 seed in the first round the last time it was a No. 2 seed (2016).
Three years ago, Michigan State had a resume loaded with great wins, won the Big Ten tournament and arguably deserved a No. 1 seed before getting placed on the No. 2 line and losing to Middle Tennessee. The Spartans fill that criteria again, so maybe Bradley can ride a similar wave?
Most Important Players Are…
Winston for Michigan State and Darrell Brown for Bradley. Winston is the veteran leader who can rally the troops and calm everyone down if an upset starts brewing. Brown is Bradley’s primary shooter and will be tasked with carrying the offense.
Predictions
David Gardner: Michigan State
David Kenyon: Michigan State
Kerry Miller: Michigan State
Elliott Pohnl: Michigan State
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Bruno FernandoPatrick Semansky/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Belmont (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV) in Jacksonville, Florida
Maryland Wins If…
It can turn this into a physical game decided by the frontcourts. Belmont has a good big man in freshman Nick Muszynski and an incredible do-it-all 6’8″ forward in Dylan Windler, but it doesn’t have a Bruno Fernando or a Jalen Smith. Maryland’s duo of soon-to-be first-round NBA draft picks should be able to manhandle the Bruins in the paint if they put their minds to it.
Not only will those two Terrapins be able to score, but they should be able to stifle a Belmont offense that shoots nearly 60 percent from inside the arc. It will be tough to do that against these 6’10” rim protectors.
Belmont Wins If…
Turnovers become a factor. Maryland only commits around 13 turnovers per game, but it forces just 9.5. And Belmont’s turnover rate on offense is great, ranking 18th in the country. Maryland has played nine games this season against teams in the top 20 in that category—Virginia, Hofstra, Michigan twice, Wisconsin twice and Nebraska three times. The average turnover count by those teams was 5.4.
Not only does Belmont hang onto the ball, but it has an effective field-goal percentage that ranks third in the nation. Maryland will likely win the rebounding battle, but if Belmont is making shots and avoiding turnovers, how many rebounds will there actually be?
Most Important Players Are…
Fernando for Maryland and Windler for Belmont. The Maryland big man averaged a double-double this season, but so did Windler. Over his last 13 games prior to being used almost as a decoy against Temple in the First Four, he was averaging 25.8 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. Hard to imagine he’ll be held to five points for a second consecutive game.
Predictions
David Gardner: Belmont
David Kenyon: Belmont
Kerry Miller: Belmont
Elliott Pohnl: Maryland
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Dedric LawsonCharlie Riedel/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Northeastern (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 4 p.m. ET (TNT) in Salt Lake City
Kansas Wins If…
Dedric Lawson does his thing against a lackluster frontcourt. Northeastern does have a couple of capable big men, but this team’s offensive rebounding and interior defense leave much to be desired. Both Virginia Tech and Syracuse scored at will in the paint against Northeastern, and neither team possesses a post player as unstoppable as Lawson.
The Memphis transfer had 13 games this season with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. It seems safe to assume he’ll get there with room to spare in this contest.
Northeastern Wins If…
Three-point figures play to form and then some. Northeastern ranks in the top 25 in both three-point percentage and three-point rate, boasting four players with at least 55 made triples at a clip of better than 39 percent. Kansas gives up a lot of three-point attempts, which opponents convert at a slightly below-average rate.
The Huskies are probably going to attempt at least 30 threes in this game. Maybe even closer to 40. If they make 45 percent of them, they’ll be in business.
Most Important Players Are…
Lawson for Kansas and Vasa Pusica for Northeastern. We’ve already covered why Lawson will be key; the big Jayhawk will be all over the stat sheet, per usual. Pusica is Northeastern’s primary ball-handler and scorer. He hit seven threes in the CAA championship win over Hofstra, and the Huskies might need a repeat performance.
Predictions
David Gardner: Kansas
David Kenyon: Northeastern
Kerry Miller: Kansas
Elliott Pohnl: Kansas
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Markus HowardJulio Cortez/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Murray State (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS) in Hartford, Connecticut
Marquette Wins If…
It slows down Ja Morant. That’s a gigantic “if,” because Morant is the most unstoppable player in the country, averaging 24.6 points, 10.0 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game. But if Steve Wojciechowski throws a box-and-one out there, clogs up the lane and does everything possible to keep Morant from getting to the rim, Murray State doesn’t have much of a Plan B.
Oh, there are other Racers with solid shooting numbers. Tevin Brown has made 84 threes, and KJ Williams shoots better than 70 percent from inside the arc. But neither is a go-to scorer, and those numbers are undoubtedly inflated by Morant’s presence. If he finishes with 18 points, seven assists and six turnovers—a good day for most mortals, but well below his averages—Marquette will probably advance.
Murray State Wins If…
Its three-point defense is truly as good as the numbers suggest. At 28.5 percent against D-I opponents, the Racers have the fourth-lowest three-point percentage allowed in the nation. Only four of 31 opponents either made at least 10 threes or shot 36 percent or better from distance against them. In four games against Austin Peay and Belmont—each of which ranks top 50 in three-point percentage—those teams shot 29-of-98 (29.6 percent).
And when Marquette shot 31 percent or worse this season, it had a 4-5 record, including blowout losses to eventual bubble teams St. John’s and Indiana. That’s not surprising, since there isn’t much else the Golden Eagles do particularly well.
Most Important Players Are…
Markus Howard for Marquette and Morant for Murray State. This is going to be one of the most exciting head-to-head battles in recent NCAA tournament history. Howard is ninth in the KenPom.com Player of the Year standings, and Morant leads the nation with 21 KenPom game MVP awards. If our dreams come true, Howard will score at least 30, Morant will rack up 20 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds, and this thing will be decided by one of them at the buzzer.
Predictions
David Gardner: Murray State
David Kenyon: Murray State
Kerry Miller: Murray State
Elliott Pohnl: Murray State
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Tom R. Smedes/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Florida (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT) in Des Moines, Iowa
Nevada Wins If…
Its turnover-averse offense wins that battle with Florida’s ball-hawking defense. If there’s one thing the Gators do about as well as any team in the country, it’s drawing out possessions on defense and forcing turnovers.
That might work well against a lot of teams, but Nevada doesn’t appear to be one of them. The Wolf Pack play at a fast tempo and rank third in the nation in percentage of steals allowed. Only Michigan and Cincinnati do a better job of avoiding live-ball turnovers than Nevada does, and it should win this game if that trend continues.
Florida Wins If…
It can convince itself that Nevada is LSU. Florida had a lot of trouble against quality opponents this season. All four games against Kentucky and Tennessee were at least nine-point wins by the favorites. The Gators got blown out by Florida State and Auburn during the regular season and lost again to Auburn in the SEC tournament, albeit in a much more competitive game. Aside from LSU, the only tournament team they beat was Ole Miss—and they needed overtime to win that home game.
But against LSU, the Gators brought the lumber, going 2-1 with an overtime loss. Stylistically, Nevada and LSU don’t share many similarities, if any, which probably does not bode well for the Gators. But we surely can’t rule out an upset, given Florida’s two marquee wins and Nevada’s lack of quality wins all season.
Most Important Players Are…
Cody Martin for Nevada and Kevarrius Hayes for Florida. Most people turn to Caleb Martin or Jordan Caroline when discussing Nevada’s key cogs, but Cody Martin will be crucial in this one as Nevada’s primary ball-handler. Hayes will be tasked with neutralizing Caroline in the paint and is Florida’s most efficient interior scorer, by far.
Predictions
David Gardner: Nevada
David Kenyon: Florida
Kerry Miller: Nevada
Elliott Pohnl: Florida
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Ashton HagansMatt Stamey/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Abilene Christian (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) in Jacksonville, Florida
Kentucky Wins If…
It takes the game seriously. All due respect to Abilene Christian for reaching the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history, but this team is not on the same physical level as Kentucky.
ACU’s biggest starter is 6’7″ Hayden Farquhar, and he shoots more threes than twos and isn’t much of a rebounder. Kentucky’s four-man frontcourt of PJ Washington, Reid Travis, EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards could combine for about 65 points and 40 rebounds if they wanted.
Abilene Christian Wins If…
Kentucky is extremely careless with the ball. The Wildcats do two things well: shoot 38.6 percent from three-point range and average 8.7 steals per game. It’s not much of a leap to argue that those numbers got some help from the fact that they only played one KenPom top 150 opponent this season. But those are the numbers all the same.
We know Kentucky has had issues defending the three-point arc this season, but UK is usually good about keeping its turnovers under control, averaging just 10.8 over the last 15 games. One of the times it struggled, though, was in the home game against Arkansas, when the Wildcats almost got caught peeking ahead to their game against Tennessee. If they start planning for Wofford or Seton Hall before taking care of ACU, this could get interesting.
Most Important Players Are…
Washington for Kentucky and Payten Ricks for Abilene Christian. Washington has been the biggest reason Kentucky flipped the switch from “good” to “great” in January. Meanwhile, if ACU is going to get hot from distance, Ricks (80-of-196 for the season) will need to lead that charge.
Predictions
David Gardner: Kentucky
David Kenyon: Kentucky
Kerry Miller: Kentucky
Elliott Pohnl: Kentucky
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Phil BoothJulio Cortez/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 Saint Mary’s (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) in Hartford, Connecticut
Villanova Wins If…
It shoots at least 32 percent from three-point range. The Wildcats are 18-2 this season when they reach that mark, which brings them to 119-7 since the start of the 2014-15 season. I don’t know what it is about 32 percent, but it has been a magic number for Villanova for half a decade now.
Villanova is average to above-average in just about every other area of the game, but its dependency on three-pointers (53.5 percent of shots taken) is nearly the highest in the nation. You know the Wildcats are going to attempt around 30 threes in every game, but will they make at least 10 of them?
Saint Mary’s Wins If…
Its defense wins the perimeter battle. Villanova (42-18) isn’t exactly winless when it shoots below 32 percent from distance over the past five years, but it does become mortal. Saint Mary’s has one of the stingiest three-point defenses in the tournament, limiting opponents to a three-point attempt on just 31.4 percent of shots taken. Only Michigan is better in that category, and you may recall the Wolverines beat the daylights out of Villanova back in November.
If the Gaels can hold Villanova to eight threes or fewer, they have a great chance to win. They should win the rebounding battle, they’ll be more than happy to play at Villanova’s slow pace, and they’re pretty good from three-point range in their own right.
Most Important Players Are…
Phil Booth for Villanova and Jordan Ford for Saint Mary’s. If and when threes are the name of this game, these two will be most responsible for both making those shots and defending the opposing team’s shots. Should be an entertaining battle between veteran guards who rarely go to the bench.
Predictions
David Gardner: Villanova
David Kenyon: Saint Mary’s
Kerry Miller: Villanova
Elliott Pohnl: Villanova
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Rui HachimuraJeff Chiu/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:27 p.m. ET (truTV) in Salt Lake City
Gonzaga Wins If…
Its offense has recovered at all from the embarrassing loss to Saint Mary’s. The Gaels aren’t a bad team, but for this historically great offense to score just 47 points in a conference championship game is incomprehensible. With any luck, that was Gonzaga’s dud and it’s all gems from here.
Against teams of FDU’s caliber, Gonzaga has not been messing around. In 14 games against teams outside the KenPom top 150, the Zags are 14-0 with an average scoring margin of 37.5 points. Not one of those games was decided by fewer than 20 points.
Fairleigh Dickinson Wins If…
Darnell Edge has a repeat performance, and about 10 other things break the right way. Edge is shooting 48.4 percent from three-point range on the season, and he lit up Prairie View A&M with seven triples and 33 points in Dayton. He’s not the only capable shooter on the roster, but he’s the most lethal one.
Most Important Players Are…
Rui Hachimura for Gonzaga and Edge for FDU. Fairleigh Dickinson has not had to deal with anything close to an Hachimura before. He should be able to gallop circles around this defense. Edge probably needs to score at least 40 before the upset could become a realistic possibility.
Predictions
David Gardner: Gonzaga
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Elliott Pohnl: Gonzaga
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Zavier SimpsonPatrick Semansky/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Montana (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT) in Des Moines, Iowa
Michigan Wins If…
Its defense gets off the bus. The Wolverines have been impenetrable on that end of the floor for most of the season. When Charles Matthews and Isaiah Livers are both healthy, opponents are just about incapable of finding a clean look at a three-pointer—and Jon Teske ensures they can’t find any space in the paint, either. Every possession against this team is a grind.
While offensive execution might be a concern later in the tournament for Michigan, it shouldn’t be a problem against an average-at-best Montana defense.
Montana Wins If…
It somehow maintains its effective field-goal percentage against Michigan. The Grizzlies are one of the best shooting teams in the field, ranking sixth in the nation with an eFG% of 56.6—slightly better than Virginia Tech and a little worse than Wofford. Great company.
But great regular-season numbers haven’t done Montana much good this decade. It had top-50 marks in eFG% in 2010, 2012 and 2013 and was held to 57, 49 and 34 points, respectively. The Grizzlies also faced Michigan last year in the first round of the tournament and lost 61-47. If this were the year—against this elite defense—that they finally score close to their season average, it would be shocking.
Most Important Players Are…
Zavier Simpson for Michigan and Ahmaad Rorie for Montana. Simpson isn’t the best shooter on this roster—he might be the worst aside from hook shots—but he is an invaluable leader on both ends of the floor. Rorie, meanwhile, is the senior point guard and a key shooter for the Grizzlies. If they’re going to score, it’s not going to happen without him.
Predictions
David Gardner: Michigan
David Kenyon: Michigan
Kerry Miller: Michigan
Elliott Pohnl: Michigan
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Fletcher MageeWade Payne/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 7 Wofford vs. No. 10 Seton Hall (Midwest Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS) in Jacksonville, Florida
Wofford Wins If…
It is able to maintain focus after Fletcher Magee sets the NCAA record for career threes. He is at 502 right now, two behind Oakland’s Travis Bader. So once he hits his third triple of the game—he is averaging 5.6 over his last 14, so maybe right before halftime—it’ll be an emotional moment.
But both he and the Terriers need to remain focused on the task at hand. If they do so, Wofford is better than Seton Hall. Not by a No. 2-over-No. 15 type of margin, but the mid-major is the definite favorite here. The Terriers just have so many offensive weapons and also do a great job on the glass, which could be key against the Pirates.
Seton Hall Wins If…
Myles Powell takes over. Wofford has a lot of talented shooters, but Seton Hall has the best scorer in this game.
Powell has averaged 27.6 points over his last seven games, draining at least four triples in all six of his games played in March. With the possible exception of Purdue’s Carsen Edwards, Powell is this year’s best candidate to put together a Kemba Walker or Sindarius Thornwell type of one-man march to the Final Four.
Most Important Players Are…
Magee and Powell. As incredible as the Markus Howard vs. Ja Morant matchup should be earlier in the day, this one might be even more magical, in part because you know each shooting guard is going to throw up at least a dozen three-point attempts—several of them ridiculous heat checks. It’s going to be an incredible way to end the first day of the tournament. (Sorry, First Four participants, but this is the first day to 99 percent of fans.)
Predictions
David Gardner: Wofford
David Kenyon: Wofford
Kerry Miller: Wofford
Elliott Pohnl: Wofford
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Carsen EdwardsMichael Conroy/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Old Dominion (South Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:50 p.m. ET (TBS) in Hartford, Connecticut
Purdue Wins If…
The fifth-most efficient offense in the tournament is able to score more than the 65th-most efficient. Due to a combination of offensive rebounding, turnover-free play, three-point shooting and a lot of Carsen Edwards, Purdue’s offense has been the furthest thing from easy to shut down.
Even in a slow-paced game against a solid Old Dominion defense, the Boilermakers should at least get to 70 points. The Monarchs can’t seem to score inside the arc or from the free-throw line, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to keep pace.
Old Dominion Wins If…
Edwards has an off night and the Monarchs’ interior defense does its usual thing. Old Dominion ranks seventh in two-point defense and 17th in block percentage. This team is also stout on the glass. 7’0″ Dajour Dickens (originally from Providence) and 7’1″ Elbert Robinson (originally from LSU) are problems in the paint as long as they’re able to stay out of foul trouble. Purdue doesn’t have much offense in the post anyway.
If Edwards (107 threes) and Ryan Cline (97 threes) aren’t hitting from the perimeter, this could turn into a rock fight that ODU could win.
Most Important Players Are…
Edwards for Purdue and Ahmad Caver for Old Dominion. At 23.0 points per game, Edwards is the first Big Ten player to average at least 21 since Kris Humphries in 2003-04. He’s kind of a big deal. Meanwhile, Caver plays nearly every minute of every game and had several clutch moments in the C-USA tournament. ODU isn’t pulling off an upset without a big performance from its lead guard.
Predictions
David Gardner: Purdue
David Kenyon: Purdue
Kerry Miller: Purdue
Elliott Pohnl: Purdue
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Tyus BattleStreeter Lecka/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 8 Syracuse vs. No. 9 Baylor (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:57 p.m. ET (truTV) in Salt Lake City
Syracuse Wins If…
Tyus Battle is healthy and this defense flusters tournament opponents like always. Syracuse’s leading scorer missed both of its ACC tournament games with a back injury. He is expected to play, but speaking on behalf of everyone with back issues, it’s impossible to know how he’ll feel in this late game.
Regarding the defensive half of the blueprint, Syracuse held its first three tournament opponents to 56 points or fewer last year before giving up 69 in a loss to Duke. During their run to the 2016 Final Four, the Orange didn’t allow more than 62 in a game until North Carolina dropped 83 on them. The great ACC teams usually know how to handle this zone because they see it often, but other teams get thrown for a loop, commit lots of turnovers, jack up bad shots and have many others rejected. It’s the basketball equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle.
Baylor Wins If…
It gets back to hitting threes in bunches. In 13 games from mid-January through the end of February, Baylor shot 40.6 percent from three and averaged just under 10 makes per game. And we all know the best way to beat Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is by getting hot from the perimeter.
When the Bears do miss, the battle for rebounds could play a huge role in the outcome, since this game features one of the best offensive rebounding teams going up against one of the worst defensive rebounding teams. Even if Baylor shoots only 30 percent from three, getting back more than 40 percent of its misses should translate to a lot of points.
Most Important Players Are…
Battle for Syracuse and Mark Vital for Baylor. The shooters are most important to Baylor, but its top offensive rebounder will be Vital (pun most certainly intended) in this matchup. Battle will be tasked with making sure this Syracuse offense doesn’t have one of its colder-than-ice performances.
Predictions
David Gardner: Syracuse
David Kenyon: Syracuse
Kerry Miller: Syracuse
Elliott Pohnl: Syracuse
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Jarron CumberlandMichael Hickey/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 10 Iowa (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbus, Ohio
Cincinnati Wins If…
It controls the pace and handles its business on offense. Iowa likes to push the tempo, especially when it has the ball. Cincinnati is much more methodical on both ends of the floor and will have a big advantage if it can force Iowa to play a half-court game.
On offense, the Bearcats aren’t great shooters, but they usually score a lot thanks to top-five rankings in both offensive rebound percentage and percentage of steals allowed. Opposing defenses have a hard time ending possessions against Cincinnati, and Iowa already struggles to wrap up defensive possessions against most teams.
Iowa Wins If…
It finally plays well on the road. The Hawkeyes knocked off Michigan and Iowa State at home, but they were winless in six games away from home against the Big Ten’s NCAA tournament teams, and they came within 15 points of winning only one of those games.
This technically isn’t a road game. Columbus isn’t much more than a hop, skip and a jump away from Cincinnati, though. Iowa fans will be clearly outnumbered by Cincinnati’s supporters.
Most Important Players Are…
Jarron Cumberland for Cincinnati and Jordan Bohannon for Iowa. Cincinnati has a lot of inconsistent scorers, but Cumberland is the lone Bearcat who comes up with several big buckets in every game. The Hawkeyes will need to rain in threes to overcome this defense, and Bohannon is the best in that department.
Predictions
David Gardner: Cincinnati
David Kenyon: Cincinnati
Kerry Miller: Cincinnati
Elliott Pohnl: Cincinnati
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Breein TyreeMichael Hickey/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET (truTV) in Columbia, South Carolina
Ole Miss Wins If…
Oklahoma doesn’t suddenly become a three-point machine. Opponents shoot 37.2 percent from three-point range against Ole Miss, which is a major red flag. That is the worst mark among all tournament teams—even the No. 16 seeds. But the Sooners are average from distance and well below-average in regard to how much they depend on threes offensively.
Oklahoma has made 10 or more triples only once in its last 23 games, averaging 6.1 makes at a 32.0 percent clip during that three-month span. Six triples won’t do the trick in this contest.
Oklahoma Wins If…
It keeps Ole Miss off the free-throw line. One of the few things the Rebels do well is convert on their one-point attempts, shooting 78.3 percent for the season. Even the worst free-throw shooter on the team (KJ Buffen) still makes nearly 70 percent of his freebies. Any foul with Ole Miss in the bonus is liable to turn into two points.
However, Oklahoma is one of the best teams at avoiding fouls, ranking seventh in defensive free-throw rate. Only two of the Sooners’ last 14 opponents attempted 18 or more free throws, and both games were against the notoriously physical West Virginia Mountaineers. Ole Miss is good from the line, but it isn’t anywhere near as good at drawing fouls as WVU is.
Most Important Players Are…
Breein Tyree for Ole Miss and Brady Manek for Oklahoma. Tyree is the Rebel who does the best job of drawing fouls, and he makes 83.1 percent of his free throws. He is also their leader in threes. Manek is Oklahoma’s versatile big man who defends well without fouling. If the Sooners need threes, he’ll be responsible for a few of them.
Predictions
David Gardner: Oklahoma
David Kenyon: Oklahoma
Kerry Miller: Oklahoma
Elliott Pohnl: Ole Miss
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Jarrett CulverDavid K Purdy/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Northern Kentucky (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Texas Tech Wins If…
Jarrett Culver and at least one other Red Raider come to play. That isn’t to say Texas Tech could win a two-on-five game here, but if Davide Moretti, Matt Mooney or Tariq Owens put up at least 17 points along with Culver’s 20-plus, Northern Kentucky likely won’t be able to keep pace.
Against this Norse defense, that isn’t a big ask. They have allowed at least 81 points in four of their last eight games and don’t excel at anything in particular on that end of the floor.
Northern Kentucky Wins If…
Texas Tech’s late-season struggles on defense continue. For most of the year, the Red Raiders were the toughest team to score against. It wasn’t until their 18th game of the season that an opponent averaged one point per possession against them. But they gave up 73 points in the regular-season finale at Iowa State and proceeded to let West Virginia score 79 in a Big 12 tournament loss to the Mountaineers.
Northern Kentucky has scorers, too. Three Norse averaged at least 14 points per game, including big man Drew McDonald. If there are cracks in that defense, these guys may find them.
Most Important Players Are…
Tariq Owens for Texas Tech and McDonald for Northern Kentucky. Owens is the heart and soul of this defense, blocking shots on the regular. He has often dealt with foul trouble over the past two months, though. McDonald hasn’t rediscovered his shooting touch since missing a game late in the year with nagging injuries. In the Horizon tournament, he scored 50 points on 51 shots, which won’t cut it against TTU.
Predictions
David Gardner: Texas Tech
David Kenyon: Texas Tech
Kerry Miller: Texas Tech
Elliott Pohnl: Texas Tech
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Kamau StokesSue Ogrocki/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 13 UC Irvine (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 2 p.m. ET (TBS) in San Jose, California
Kansas State Wins If…
It out-defends UC Irvine. Both of these teams are lackluster on offense and strong on D, but Kansas State has the fourth-most efficient defense in the country. The Wildcats have held eight consecutive opponents to 64 points or fewer with a combination of steals (8.3 per game) and relentless three-point defense (27.7 percent).
Kansas State may well struggle to score 60 in this game, but it could still win by holding UC Irvine to 50.
UC Irvine Wins If…
Kansas State has one of its typical poor shooting performances. UC Irvine leads the nation in two-point field-goal defense, but it also limits assists and three-point attempts at a top-15 level, per KenPom. To beat this Anteaters D, you basically either need to get hot from three-point range or create offense for yourself with mid-range jumpers.
Can the Wildcats do either? They have been held below 60 points 11 times this season, including the Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State. And with Dean Wade doubtful to play, KSU’s mid-range game gets a lot worse. Wade is also the lone Wildcat who shoots 37 percent or better from three-point range.
Most Important Players Are…
Barry Brown for Kansas State and Jonathan Galloway for UC Irvine. Brown is KSU’s primary driver and its best interior scorer (if Wade is out). He also leads the team in steals. Galloway is Irvine’s primary interior defender and its most efficient scorer. If he has somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 points, eight rebounds and three blocks, the Anteaters will be in great shape.
Predictions
David Gardner: UC Irvine
David Kenyon: UC Irvine
Kerry Miller: UC Irvine
Elliott Pohnl: UC Irvine
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BILL FEIG/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Colgate (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbus, Ohio
Tennessee Wins If…
It gets into any sort of offensive rhythm early. Tennessee doesn’t need to play its best game to get a lot of buckets against a Colgate defense that ranks 203rd in adjusted efficiency. Heck, when it played the team currently ranked No. 205 in that metric (Eastern Kentucky), Tennessee waltzed to a 95-67 victory.
The Volunteers just need to see some shots fall early. If they have at least 18 points by the midway point of the first half, we might as well call this game and start the next one. But if it’s an 11-9 type of score after 10 minutes, doubts and nerves will start to creep in—and the deluge of tweets about not trusting Rick Barnes in the tournament will begin. Feed Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield early and often and blow this thing wide open.
Colgate Wins If…
It exploits Tennessee’s two biggest weaknesses to an absurd degree. The Volunteers are average at defending the three-point arc and slightly below-average in terms of defensive rebounding. Enter Colgate, which shot nearly 39 percent from distance and ranks just outside of the top 100 in offensive rebounding. As luck would have it, two of the Raiders’ biggest strengths match up nicely with two of the Vols’ biggest weaknesses.
Colgate has five players who have made at least 40 three-pointers this season, and the Raiders will be calling upon those guys a ton—just like they did in the November loss to Syracuse (40 three-point attempts, 11 two-point attempts). But even if they drill 16 of those 40 attempts from deep, that’s still only 48 points. They’ll need to find at least 33 more to keep up with the 80 or more that Tennessee will score. It’s a fine starting point, though.
Most Important Players Are…
Jordan Bone for Tennessee and Jordan Burns for Colgate. Veteran point guards are almost always the most important player for No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the first round, as they must calm the team down and get the train back on track if upset juices start flowing through the arena. For Colgate, Burns made the most threes this season and will be the one leading that perimeter charge.
Predictions
David Gardner: Tennessee
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Tennessee
Elliott Pohnl: Tennessee
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De’andre HunterChuck Burton/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 16 Gardner-Webb (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 3:10 p.m. ET (truTV) in Columbia, South Carolina
Virginia Wins If…
God doesn’t hate Tony Bennett.
Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Virginia is 165-31, excluding the NCAA tournament. That’s an 84.2 winning percentage that has produced four regular-season ACC titles and two conference tournament championships. During that same time, Bennett is 7-5 in the NCAA tournament, including last year’s historic/horrific first-round loss to UMBC.
But this is the best team in the country, facing an opponent that is terrible at both rebounding and defending the three-point arc. Barring some sort of divine intervention, the Cavaliers should win this by 20.
Gardner-Webb Wins If…
It the three-point battle plays out like it did last year for UMBC. Just about the only thing the Retrievers did well last season was shoot three-pointers, and they took that to an extreme by hitting 12-of-24 against Virginia—while the Cavaliers shot 4-of-22.
Gardner-Webb could replicate the first half of that, as it shot better than 37 percent from downtown this year. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs start draining them early, it will be hard for Virginia to avoid the “Oh no, here we go again” feeling.
Most Important Players Are…
Jack Salt for Virginia and David Efianayi for Garnder-Webb. The Runnin’ Bulldogs don’t play anyone taller than 6’6″, so Salt (and Jay Huff, for that matter) should be able to do whatever he darn well pleases in the post. Efianayi is the eldest and most accurate of G-W’s three primary three-point shooters.
Predictions
David Gardner: Virginia
David Kenyon: Virginia
Kerry Miller: Virginia
Elliott Pohnl: Virginia
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C.J. MassinburgJeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Buffalo vs. No. 11 Arizona State (West Regional)
Details: Friday at 4 p.m. ET (TNT) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Buffalo Wins If…
It keeps turnovers under control. The Bulls run into trouble when they lose the turnover battle, including the close call against Central Michigan in the Mid-American Conference tournament, They almost lost that game despite shooting 73.5 percent from inside the arc and finishing plus-17 in rebound margin.
Buffalo is usually sure-handed, but it does have lapses. That doesn’t figure to be a major issue in this game, though, because Arizona State’s defense is average in terms of steals and turnovers.
Arizona State Wins If…
It can force Buffalo to play a physical game. The Sun Devils love fouls. Drawing them. Committing them. It doesn’t matter. As long as both teams spend a lot of time at the free-throw line, it keeps opponents from getting into any sort of offensive rhythm.
That isn’t Buffalo’s style. The Bulls prefer to get out and run on offense, playing a clean game without many fouls or turnovers. However, they did win games against West Virginia and Syracuse earlier this season, and both of those teams are physical. Arizona State will need more than just that to win the game, but a whistle-fest does seem to favor the Sun Devils.
Most Important Players Are…
C.J. Massinburg for Buffalo and Romello White for Arizona State. If there are a lot of fouls, Massinburg will be indispensable as Buffalo’s best free-throw shooter. Meanwhile, White’s defensive presence in the paint could set the tone for the game.
Predictions
David Gardner: Buffalo
David Kenyon: Buffalo
Kerry Miller: Buffalo
Elliott Pohnl: Buffalo
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Ethan HappDylan Buell/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Oregon (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET (TBS) in San Jose, California
Wisconsin Wins If…
It limits turnovers and it rides Ethan Happ hard. Oregon gets a lot of steals, but Wisconsin (per usual) is one of the most sure-handed teams, rarely committing turnovers. The Badgers should be able to handle the first part of this request, and they have never been shy about obliging the latter.
Wisconsin hasn’t faced much zone defense this season, but Happ is a one-man zone-buster. In six games against Maryland (two), Iowa (two), Xavier and Savannah State—all listed as either “some zone” or “mostly zone” by KenPom—Happ averaged 18.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists while Wisconsin went 5-1. All three numbers are slightly higher than his season averages, and that’s because his affinity for passing out of the post is so hard for zone defenses to handle.
Oregon Wins If…
It continues to thrive on defense. In the Pac-12, it’s hard to know whether a team was good on D or if it just benefited from playing terrible offenses, but Oregon has held its last eight opponents (all wins) to 54.3 points. Those teams collectively shot 34.6 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from three-point range.
Wisconsin is no stranger to power outages on offense, either. The Badgers rank outside the top 300 in free-throw percentage, free-throw rate and offensive rebound percentage, and they are barely in the top 200 in two-point percentage. The last time they scored at least 70 points in regulation was January 23—15 games ago.
Most Important Players Are…
Happ for Wisconsin and Kenny Wooten for Oregon. Can Wooten (3.4 blocks per 40) contest Happ’s shots and still stay out of foul trouble? Can Happ (46.5 percent) convert the free throws when he does get fouled? Most tournament games feature intriguing perimeter battles, but this game ought to be decided in the post.
Predictions
David Gardner: Oregon
David Kenyon: Wisconsin
Kerry Miller: Oregon
Elliott Pohnl: Wisconsin
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Sam MerrillDavid Becker/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Washington (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT) in Columbus, Ohio
Utah State Wins If…
It can handle Washington’s ball pressure. The Huskies rank second in the nation in steal percentage, averaging just a shade under 9.0 per game. But they went 5-6 against opponents that committed 14 turnovers or fewer (compared to 21-2 otherwise).
Fourteen is a magic number for Utah State too, as it went 24-2 when committing 14 turnovers or fewer and just 4-4 when it was more careless with the ball.
Washington Wins If…
It can crack Utah State’s interior defense. Washington often struggled to score against bad defenses, so this might be asking too much of the Huskies. Utah State ranks top five in both defensive rebounding percentage and two-point field-goal defense. Noah Dickerson and Co. are going to have their hands full with Neemias Queta.
Washington also needs to keep its own defensive rebounding woes under control, as the Huskies give up a lot of second-chance opportunities as a byproduct of their aggressive pursuit of blocked shots.
Most Important Players Are…
Sam Merrill for Utah State and Matisse Thybulle for Washington. Merrill averages better than 21 points, four rebounds and four assists per game, is lethal from the free-throw line and doesn’t commit many turnovers. Thybulle might be the best individual defender in the country.
Predictions
David Gardner: Washington
David Kenyon: Utah State
Kerry Miller: Washington
Elliott Pohnl: Utah State
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Zion WilliamsonNell Redmond/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 North Dakota State (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbia, South Carolina
Duke Wins If…
Neither 2012 Lehigh nor 2014 Mercer shows up. Even with two national championships in the past decade, Duke fans can’t take first-round games for granted because of those previous colossal upsets.
However, this team is much better than those previous versions of Duke, and North Dakota State doesn’t have a CJ McCollum and isn’t anywhere near as good as that Mercer squad was. As long as there isn’t some major injury in the first five minutes that saps the life out of the Blue Devils, they’ll cruise to victory.
North Dakota State Wins If…
A Bison miracle happens.
This team has not beaten a KenPom top-150 opponent yet this season, and it lost by 42 to Gonzaga in its only game against an opponent of Duke’s caliber. North Dakota State’s defense is dreadful and it doesn’t get many offensive rebounds. It does take and make a ton of threes, but Duke has a top-10 three-point defense to match. There isn’t much reason for optimism here. But the Bison did mess around and give Gonzaga a decent game when they were a No. 15 seed in 2015.
Most Important Players Are…
Zion Williamson for Duke and Jared Samuelson for North Dakota State. Have you heard of this Williamson guy? He seems pretty good. Samuelson is NDSU’s best three-point shooter, and the Bison will need him to make at least eight to have any hope of pulling off the upset.
Predictions
David Gardner: Duke
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Elliott Pohnl: Duke
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Joe Murphy/Getty Images
Matchup: No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Georgia State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Houston Wins If…
Its three-point defense holds up. At 27.6 percent, Houston has done a better job defending the arc than every team not named Virginia. That should spell trouble for Georgia State, which does most of its damage from the perimeter. The Panthers went 1-5 when shooting worse than 32 percent from distance, and most of those losses were blowouts.
Going inside isn’t much of a Plan B, though, as Houston ranks fifth in two-point defense and 20th in block percentage. Similar to Michigan, the Cougars aren’t that great on offense, but scoring against this team is a nightmare.
Georgia State Wins If…
It out-rebounds Houston and shoots at least 80 percent from the free-throw line—neither of which is a likely development. Although Georgia State should spend a fair amount of time at the charity stripe, since Houston has some foul-committing problems.
The Panthers (65.6 percent) are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the tournament, and their average rebounding margin (negative-6.1) figures to be a major problem against Houston (positive-7.3). If they can overcome those Achilles’ heels, though, they have five players averaging at least 11 points per game. Even against this great Houston defense, they’re bound to find some points.
Most Important Players Are…
Corey Davis for Houston and D’Marcus Simonds for Georgia State. These are the leading scorers who will likely be going head-to-head for most of the night. Both stars are looking to make up for lackluster showings in their conference championship games on Sunday.
Predictions
David Gardner: Houston
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Elliott Pohnl: Houston
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Reggie Perry (1)Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Liberty (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:27 p.m. ET (truTV) in San Jose, California
Mississippi State Wins If…
It pushes around a smaller Liberty team. Scottie James (6’8″) is the only big man on the Flames roster, and he’ll be looking up at Mississippi State’s trio of 6’10” Reggie Perry, 6’10” Aric Holman and 6’11” Abdul Ado, each of whom logs a lot of minutes.
In three of four games against major-conference opponents this season, Liberty was destroyed on the glass. Now, it needs to deal with one of the better offensive rebounding and shot-blocking frontcourts in the tournament. As long as the Bulldogs put that size to good use, they should be able to keep the upset-minded Flames at bay.
Liberty Wins If…
It controls the pace and maintains its high-efficiency shooting against a quality foe. Liberty usually plays at one of the slowest tempos of any team, but in losses to Alabama, Georgetown and Vanderbilt, the Flames let the pace of play get away from them. Also, in those three games, they were well below their season average in either two-point or three-point percentage, which did them no favors.
But in the two wins over Lipscomb and the road win over UCLA, the Flames were able to play at their pace and had shooting marks more in line with their norm. If this game is 65 possessions or fewer, they’ll have a chance.
Most Important Players Are…
Perry for Mississippi State and James for Liberty. If it’s a 65-possession game because Perry and the Bulldogs keep extending possessions with offensive rebounds, that won’t be so great for Liberty. James will be in charge of keeping that under control and will be a big part of Liberty’s efforts to score efficiently, as he shoots better than 70 percent inside the arc.
Predictions
David Gardner: Mississippi State
David Kenyon: Liberty
Kerry Miller: Mississippi State
Elliott Pohnl: Liberty
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Coby WhiteGerry Broome/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Iona (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT) in Columbus, Ohio
North Carolina Wins If…
It can maintain decades of consistency in this situation and against this type of opponent. Since the beginning of KenPom data in 2002, North Carolina has never lost to a team ranked 160th or lower. Even when the Tar Heels went 8-20 in 2001-02, their worst loss was to No. 121 Florida State. And Iona is ranked 198th this year.
Moreover, North Carolina has not lost a first-round NCAA tournament game since 1999, and Roy Williams is 28-0 in the first round in his career. Also, this team is much, much better than Iona in just about every way.
Iona Wins If…
Something even more shocking than UMBC over Virginia needs to happen this year.
Iona’s best win of the season was against KenPom No. 189 Hartford. The Gaels only played three games against KenPom top 100 teams and lost each one by a double-digit margin. Worst of all, Iona’s preferred fast pace of play isn’t going to be any problem for North Carolina, as the Tar Heels push the tempo even more than the Gaels do. This is the worst draw Iona could have gotten.
Most Important Players Are…
Coby White for North Carolina and Ben Perez for Iona. The Tar Heels shouldn’t need much from White in this game, but he is the player they could least afford to lose to an opening weekend injury, a la Kendall Marshall in 2012. If something unbelievable is going to happen for Iona, it would probably need to start with Perez draining a ton of threes.
Predictions
David Gardner: North Carolina
David Kenyon: North Carolina
Kerry Miller: North Carolina
Elliott Pohnl: North Carolina
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Marcus Evans (2)Frank Franklin II/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 8 VCU vs. No. 9 UCF (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS) in Columbia, South Carolina
VCU Wins If…
This is a rock fight won by the best defense. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in defensive effective field-goal percentage, so you’re just asking for trouble if you bet the over here.
In addition to eFG%, VCU forces a lot of turnovers—what else is new?—and does a great job of keeping threes from even being attempted. UCF isn’t great at anything on offense aside from drawing fouls, so it could have a lot of trouble putting points on the board.
UCF Wins If…
Marcus Evans is playing at less than full strength for VCU. Evans left the A-10 tournament loss to Rhode Island with a knee injury, though he is expected to play in this one.
How healthy will the leading scorer and distributor for the Rams’ anemic offense be, though? VCU already doesn’t shoot well and struggles with turnovers. Put that unit on the floor with a leader playing at maybe 90 percent health against UCF’s defense and things could get ugly.
Most Important Players Are…
Marcus Santos-Silva for VCU and Tacko Fall for UCF. What’s a rock fight without a tussle in the paint? Santos-Silva had 26 points and 22 rebounds in VCU’s last game and has been an outstanding offensive rebounder all season. Standing in his path is merely a 7’6″ Fall, who blocks shots and draws fouls at a high rate.
Predictions
David Gardner: UCF
David Kenyon: VCU
Kerry Miller: UCF
Elliott Pohnl: UCF
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Marial ShayokCharlie Neibergall/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Ohio State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:50 p.m. ET (TBS) in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Iowa State Wins If…
Threes are falling. Sure, that applies to every team to some extent, but especially to the Cyclones, who have five players with more than 40 triples this season. Virginia transfer Marial Shayok has been the top guy with 68 makes, and he is surrounded by teammates capable of shouldering that load, too. Even starting center Michael Jacobson has made 16 threes and canned both of his attempts in the Big 12 championship game.
Iowa State does a lot of things well on offense, but even an average night of three-point shooting from the Cyclones will be tough for Ohio State’s offense to match.
Ohio State Wins If…
It suddenly wakes up from an 11-week slumber. The Buckeyes lost 13 of their final 20 games. Save for one home game against Iowa, NCAA tournament teams consistently blew them out, and they lost to the likes of Rutgers, Illinois and Northwestern.
But this team was good at one point. Ohio State won road games against Cincinnati and Creighton with great defense. It also crushed Minnesota and UCLA en route to a 12-1 start to the season. The fight they displayed late in the season—coming back from a huge deficit to force overtime against Wisconsin, beating Indiana and staying within shouting distance of Michigan State—may have been a sign the Buckeyes are coming out of hibernation.
Most Important Players Are…
Tyrese Haliburton for Iowa State and Kaleb Wesson for Ohio State. Haliburton’s freshman-year stats (7.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 44.1% 3PT, 4.6 assists/turnover) aren’t all that different from what Monte Morris did in his first season at Iowa State, and he was an indispensable part of Iowa State’s offense for four years. Wesson is Ohio State’s star player, and he is someone who could make this game mighty interesting with a 25-point, 12-rebound effort.
Predictions
David Gardner: Iowa State
David Kenyon: Ohio State
Kerry Miller: Iowa State
Elliott Pohnl: Iowa State
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Kerry BlackshearRobert Franklin/Associated Press
Matchup: No. 4 Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 Saint Louis (East Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:57 p.m. ET (truTV) in San Jose, California
Virginia Tech Wins If…
Justin Robinson’s return doesn’t somehow mess things up. The senior point guard has been out with a foot injury since late January, and the Hokies have had some ups and downs without him. He’s back now, and that might make Virginia Tech a threat for a deep run.
Even if it doesn’t immediately help the offense, as long as it doesn’t hurt them for some reason, they should win this game. The Hokies only went 7-5 without him, but all five losses were close games against KenPom top 35 teams. They also won a home game against Duke. Saint Louis (KenPom No. 104) is a big step down from what they have been facing lately.
Moreover, the Billikens are extremely unlikely to capitalize on Virginia Tech’s biggest weakness: its three-point defense. SLU ranks in the bottom 10 percent nationally in both three-point percentage and three-point rate on KenPom. If the Billikens come out and drain a dozen threes in this game, it would be one of the most unpredictable developments of the first round.
Saint Louis Wins If…
It breaks Virginia Tech’s will to fight with defense and rebounding. This team does have a strong defense. It held Houston, Seton Hall, Butler and Oregon State each below 70 points. And led by Hasahn French, Saint Louis rebounds well on both ends of the floor.
The Billikens will also need to make more shots than they usually do, but asking them to out-shoot Virginia Tech is a foolish request. They need to dominate in other areas and hope that shooting isn’t their downfall.
Most Important Players Are…
Kerry Blackshear for Virginia Tech and Javon Bess for Saint Louis. Blackshear will be VT’s most important player in every round because he is its only legitimate frontcourt presence. Plus, he does a little bit of everything. Bess is the one Billiken who is actually efficient on offense, although even he doesn’t shoot well. It’s mostly because of his minuscule turnover rate.
Predictions
David Gardner: Virginia Tech
David Kenyon: Virginia Tech
Kerry Miller: Virginia Tech
Elliott Pohnl: Saint Louis
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